Doraintrade – Dried Food Market Newsletter – October 2016
Turkish Sultana Raisins
Due to a record big crop from Turkey more than 320.000 tons supply, raw material prices dropped down to 3,000 TL/ton or even less by week 41st in the İzmir bourse for Type9 Sultanas. Even this low price levels are aim to drop daily due to very big supply, we estimate that there is daily around 3000mtons of raw material purchased/traded in the raw material market. Especially growers are targeting to sell and finish their raw materials with quality problems at the beginning of the crop. Thus, there is a high mould and shivered berries matters could be high in first shipments. Mentioned quality problem raw materials are trading at 2700-2800 TL/ton in the raw material markets. Right now the parity TL/USD is 3,071-
For Sultanas market, raw material price equal to USD.1950/mtons. So additional of processing +350USD cost and wastage, export offered prices are around 1300-1350USD FOB for Std berry size type 9 Sultanas.
As the big fear was banned pesticide from EU chlorprifos, analyses from the raw material this year did not show up much serious residue or contamination. Almost all exporters this season guarantee free of this specific pesticide. Relating to the organic production was again limited in the market, price levels are between USD.2350-3400/ton FOB.
Low prices made Turkish Sultanas this year very favourable for many Overseas markets that made an advantage to Turkey’s exports against US, Iran, Uzbekistan and China. Even if the exports go on this fast even after the Christmas period we don’t estimate a raw material shortage in the market so there would not be a major price rise. Only if the currency parity drops significantly, there can be minor changes.
Turkish Dried Figs
Along the summer period, Fig trees and growing regions did not face of a major problem. Only within September there has been rain occur in the east of growing area that lowered the quality from some specific areas. Growers last year already got used to high raw material prices around 10-12 TL/kg even the crop was bigger this year, growers did not want to sell the products from lower levels. Together with the first vessel date big demand from the overseas markets, easily raw material prices came up to same levels of last year around 10TL. Still with the big demand for earliest shipments of Dried Figs, contracts were made around USD4,50/kg levels for N6,7 standard qualities and more than USD.5/kg levels for big sizes N.1,2. Size 3-4 around USD.4,70-4,80 Fob p/kg levels.
As now after new crop first export day is already past, we should normally expect some relief on the prices relating to lower the tension in demand. However by this week 41st, we still see the same raw material prices as well as offered export price levels.
As every year, there is a huge price gap between different quality raw materials. So in conclusion this can influence export offer prices between good quality natural product packers and low quality suppliers, chemical treatment bleaching processors factories.
We observed this year, there is greater percentage of black mould and mouldy berries, sour-fermented fruits due to the high humidity in the growing areas close to the harvest time and colour is naturally darker. While the other matters such as Aflatoxin or insect damages levels were at typical seasonal norms.
Organic natural dried figs no.4 nowadays are offered from 5.500-5.600 USD/mton levels. Smaller sizes such as 6/7 organic figs are offering at 5.000 USD/mton levels.
Turkish Dried Apricots
After another big crop harvested in Malatya this year in July, we have witnessed dramatic price drop against previous year’s crop.
Within the summer, prices dropped till the USD3,200/ton levels for N4 So2 Apricots then by September those prices recovered back to USD3,500/ton levels for N4 So2 Apricots.
Relating to big crop this season, So2 level was so high from the orchards that growers tend to keep their products to sell later on the year targeting for better prices. Eventually, EU max 2000ppm So2 levels were cost little more for the processors.
This season Natural apricots production was quite shorter than the previous years resulted, there has been up to USD+500/+750 price difference relating to the size for export values. Also Organic supply is limited and prices at around 5.500 usd/mton levels for No.3’s.
This year there is enough Dried Apricots for export markets even may to carry over. So during the year price driving factor would be demand and currency movements. Although there is a up directed movement in the prices, we believe in the long term Dried Apricots prices will remain settled until new crop news on March/17.
2016 Turkish Hazelnuts market has been very much fluctuating and speculative market dynamics. After Government announcement of unrealistic new crop estimation volumes, Growers became persistent and a market which seemed to be stuck at very high price offers. Thus the export shipments from August remain very slow relating to weak demand. The optimistic of both Azerbaijan and Georgia who are filling up the overseas demand for this season, increased the pressure on the Turkish farmers to sell their products. We saw the first relieve in prices in the past weeks according to some supply started by the growers. If Turkish farmers decide to start selling in big volumes, we can see the price offers for Turkish Hazelnuts go down. Weakening Turkish Lira and slow shipment figures of last month may push this selling attitude.
Although all factors direct to lower the price offers in the market, we still cannot see a precise relief and far from our expected favourable price levels in the market. According to us still week 41st price offers stay high comparing to the Turkish raw material stocks for 2016 crop. Nowadays prices offers averagely for Giresun quality are, Natural 11-13 mm at USD.9700p/mtons, Blanched 11-13mm at USD. 11680 p/mtons and 13-15mm Blanched at USD. 12270 p/ mtons Fob full container basis.
Below Chart shows figures of Turkish dried fruits varieties tonnage, average export prices and its comparison with last year figures.
Export Figures Of Turkish Sultana Raisins / Dried Apricots/ Dried Figs in Comparison with same period last year